Friday, July 5, 2024
At 1 July last, The Guardian published an article on the demographic situation in Japan with the following subtitle: ,,Some 68,000 people are expected to die alone and unnoticed in Japan this year, police say, as the population continues to age.” Furthermore the article cited that this was 27.000 in 2011. The article was very clear on the main cause of this situation which is a persistent low birthrate over many decades. As the article describes it: ,,as Japan’s population continues to age, more people are spending the final years of their lives in isolation. The number of people over 65 living alone stood at 7.38 million in 2020 and is expected to rise to almost 11 million by 2050, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. Single-person households account for almost 38% of total households, according to the 2020 census, a 13.3% rise from the previous survey conducted five years earlier”. The webmagazine nippon.com wrote at 12 June last that ‘Japan’s total fertility rate hit a new low of 1.20 in 2023, with the rate for Tokyo falling to 0.99 for the first time.’ This is not unique to Japan. The same is happening in South Korea where the government declared a demographic emergency last May. This as South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate, which indicates the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. It recorded a rate of just 0.72 in 2023 – down from 0.78 the previous year, the latest drop in a long string of yearly declines. CNN noted that ‘Countries need a fertility rate of 2.1 to maintain a stable population, in the absence of immigration.’ It may seem odd that I start with demographic numbers from Asia but the reality is that at this point both Europe and most of Asia are in the same demographic reality in various degrees. This is the demographic reality in the EU, Russia, China, Japan and Korea. Together that is a very significant part of the global population where we see a rather dramatic shift towards an aging population. But even in the Middle East we see a similar development already on its way. Interestingly enough, another recent article at 30 June last in The Guardian described how this reality would soon hit our whole care system in Europe, with no easy solution at hand. Even the left-liberal Guardian understands now that this is a real challenge for Europe, one that cannot be solved with immigration. How will we have sufficient care and healthcare in the future? While some believe that they can solve this for themselves by saving money, they overlook that this money is worthless when there are no people available to pay to provide care. Crucial reports and research from several countries point time and again at both the financial and time pressure on families as a major reason why there are no more births. While it is obvious that we will not go back to the past in which having many kids was the norm, it is equally obvious that having a fertility rate of less than one is problematic and not even the wish of many young couples. So there is space for a bit of rebalancing. A week ago representatives of the Sallux member-organisations met to discuss these issues in-depth. The conclusion was that the most important way to move forward on this issue is to change the economy. Simply stating that ‘young people should not complain and just have more kids’ will not change anything. Young women rightly refuse to be told on how they should live their life. There is still a habit in some Christian and conservative corners to project certain expectations on young women and young couples. That has to end, it only creates irritation and resentment and understandably so. The type of talk in some conservative corners that expect women back in traditional roles and both men and women ‘to toughen up’ is simply rejected by the massive majority of young people who are indeed completely free to do so. That is a logical consequence of a free society. However at the same time certain ‘social expectations’ and economical realities do have influence. At the moment many young women still feel the pressure of expectation of being a good mum while at the same time they are expected to work and provide care for aging parents. This is increasingly the reality for both men and women (as there is a positive development that men increasingly care and do household chores as well). Policies are made and continued that simply do not consider that families cannot do everything and pay at the same time ever higher bills for housing and utilities. As there are only 24 hours in a day and care for children simply demands time and money, more and more young couples come to the conclusion that having (more) children is not possible for them. Moreover the accumulation of pressures increases the burn-out rate that in turn increases the pressure on those who remain in the workplace. Something will have to give. Either we change our economy or we will soon face massive problems in essential services such as healthcare, police and so on. That also demands that we change the whole perception on what really matters in life. Accumulation of capital is rather pointless if at the end you cannot even buy the care when you really need simply because a lack of available people (caused by that focus on accumulation of capital). We therefore need a fundamental change in what we really value in our society and we need an economy that supports families. For that reason we invite you warmly for our next online event at July 15, 20:30 in cooperation with Jubilee Centre: ‘ Why and how should Christians prioritise seeing the world through a relational lens?’ You can subscribe here. We look forward to see you there!